🚨 BRO, DENGARIN INI: BITCOIN BELUM BOTTOM!
Yang sok-sok santai bilang BTC udah $60K, salah besar. Itu cuma local bottom, bro… bukan akhir siklus.
LIQUIDITY ITU RAJA, BRO.
Uang lagi disedot keluar sistem, bukan ditambah. Pas liquidity negatif: crypto roboh duluan, saham ikut, risk asset lemes parah.
Perusahaan ambruk.
Konsumen telat bayar hutang.
Tekanan ekonomi makin ngebentur kepala lo.
Sampai liquidity balik positif → lupakan bottom final.
MAYER MULTIPLE: 0.67 bro, belum ekstrem oversold. Maksudnya? Kita masih jauh dari level bottom sejarah. Jadi jangan senang dulu.
LONG TERM HOLDER REALIZED PRICE: ~$41K.
BTC sekarang? Jauh, bro… ini tempat bottom beneran kemungkinan bakal nempel.
BIAYA MINING: $57.5K. Tapi pas bear, biasanya turun 15–20% → $45K–$46K. Kalau indikator ini ketemu sama yang lain → zona neraka buat bottom.
TEKNIKAL + INSTITUSIONAL: $45K–$50K
ETF diapprove.
Crash August 2024.
Whale & institusi borong parah.
Ini area harga yang akan mereka bela mati-matian.
CYCLE GILA:
ATH baru sebelum halving? Baru kali ini.
Q4 post-halving biasanya bullish → malah merah.
Altcoin top duluan → BTC malah nyusul.
Artinya bro… struktur siklus ini main depan ekspektasi. Bottom bisa datang lebih cepet.
💀 KAPAN BOTTOM?
Jangan tunggu Q4 klasik.
Perkiraan: Agustus – September.
Pas pasar mulai reset sebelum fase ekspansi gila berikutnya.
PSYCHOLOGY CHECK:
Kalau BTC $45K–$48K, orang mulai teriak $30K, $25K, bahkan $20K… Bro, semua jebakan, sama kayak Nov 2022.
KESIMPULAN:
Liquidity masih minus.
Onchain signals belum ekstrem.
Mining cost bisa lebih rendah.
Zona institusi lebih rendah.
Siklus front-run ekspektasi.
💣 $60K? Cuma local bottom. Real cycle bottom = kemungkinan di bawah $50K, datang akhir summer – awal fall. Siap-siap, bro.
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